Ingenia Communities Group (INA)
BUY

Weather weighs on FY23 growth

Sector: Real Estate

TRADING UPDATE

Need To Know

FY23 settlement guidance downgraded by 13%

A better-than-expected performance across its tourism assets

INA’s medium to long-term growth outlook remains robust. Retain Buy

The continuing effect of supply shortages and wet weather has impacted upon INA VIC developments causing FY23 settlement guidance to be downgraded by ~13%.

INA is now expecting the FY23 result to be at the lower end of the group’s guidance range (30-35% EBIT growth and 5-10% EPS growth).

The better-than-expected performance across INA tourism assets which has been benefiting from both strength in rate and demand, has offset the settlement guidance downgrade.

Investment Implications

Supply constraints and inclement weather are a temporary near-term headwind, which we believe will be mostly offset by continued strength across its tourism assets and the robust demand for land lease assets, which INA is well exposed to.

With growth in FY23 expecting to be relatively flat, we see a pathway of +20% growth for FY24-25 which has INA on a PE of 16x. From this, we retain a buy rating as INA’s medium to long-term growth outlook remains robust.

Specific disclosure: Within the last 12 months, the company that is the subject of this report, has engaged MST Asset Management, a division of MST Financial, to provide referral services and may receive fees for such services. 

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Stock overview

Share Price

Company overview

INA is a leading operator, owner and developer of communities offering affordable seniors’ accommodation. INA has 90 communities (>13k income generating sites) with a book value of $1.2bn.

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